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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.