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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."